Most unexpected was Paramount stock’s jump. Wall Street almost always disdains giant acquisitions on the theory that buyers get too excited about big deals and overpay—and indeed, that’s usually what happens. When the deal gets sealed, the buyer’s stock usually drops, but in this case it rose almost 30%. That’s probably because analysts were pleasantly surprised: They had figured Paramount would need to raise its offer from $30 to $32–$34 a share to vanquish Netflix; instead, Paramount offered just $31 and prevailed.
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But there are plenty of wild cards ahead, as Ullrich and others are quick to acknowledge.